Thursday, June 12, 2014

CA-Gov: Jerry Brown vs. Neel Kashkari

The California gubernatorial vote is mostly in and Jerry Brown got a 54.5% of it. So, Brown is going to win in the fall. Can we go home now? Well, we could, but that's not why you read this blog, now is it? Brown's showing is very good, but it isn't the huge percentage predicted by some people and the overall Democratic percentage is roughly the same that Democrats got in the Treasurer and LG races. That tells me Brown probably didn't get the Republican votes people predicted for him. Of course, Jerry Brown looks strong, but I'm leaning towards him not exceeding Dianne Feinstein's 2012 benchmark of 62.5% of the vote. I wouldn't be surprised if Gavin Newsom or John Chiang got a higher percentage of the vote than he does.

Some Republicans were shouting that Tim Donnelly would be a disaster at the ballot box. He might've been, but I think Neel Kashkari is going to do poorly. As I've said before, Kashkari has no real base of support. He’s pro-choice, pro-immigration reform, and pro gay marriage. He's the sort of moderate who is going to turn off conservatives. If Kashkari had a chance at winning, he'd get their votes, but everyone knows he won't. So these conservatives can either stay home or just not vote in the governor's race and not worry about costing the Republicans an election.

Against a liberal, a candidate like Kashkari might be able to crack the moderate vote. But Jerry Brown is no liberal. He's perceived as a moderate who wants to hold the line on crazy spending. Even when Brown goes nuts on a ridiculously expensive thing like the bullet train he doesn't propose to throw $5 billion from the general fund to pay for it. So Kashkari is boxed in. Brown is going to grab the moderate vote and many conservatives won't vote for him. If Kashkari had the "tens of millions of dollars" he thinks he needs, he might crack 40%. But who's going to throw that kind of money into a losing campaign?

Kashkari might get in the high 30's if he can convince Republicans to vote for him. If they leave the ballot blank, we're talking mid-30's. Don't think I'm advocating for Tim Donnelly here. I don't think he would've done better. Wait a minute. Didn't I just say Jerry Brown was nothing special? I did, but Gavin Newsom and John Chiang's opponents have low name recognition also and won't be spending any money. I expect Brown, Newsom, Chiang, and Kamala Harris all to get 59-62% of the vote.

No comments:

Post a Comment