Monday, June 23, 2014

California Primary Assembly Vote Analysis

Based on the California congressional vote, it looks like the results will be a wash. That'd be a win for the Democrats, as they need to protect big gains and expect a worse electorate in the mid-term. The Senate vote looks very strong for the GOP, as they'd deny the Democrats the super majority there. The assembly vote, however, is like the congressional vote, probably minimal losses for the Democrats. And maybe a bit better. Republicans need to pick up two seats to deny Democrats another super majority. That should be easy, but might not be.

AD-8 - Republicans were hoping this East Sacramento district could be in play. They won the primary in 2012 by 10% and lost the general election by 8%. But Carly Fiorina won this district. Democrat Ken Cooley beat Republican Douglas Haaland by 11% in the primary. The GOP won't make up that ground. Safe Democratic.

AD-16 - Fiorina didn't win this district but the loss was narrow and the district has no incumbent. Democrats Tim Sbranti and Steve Glazer poured a ton of money, their own and outside money, into the district and it showed in the results. Safe Democratic.

AD-21 - Fiorina did win this Central Valley district. So it was a disappointment when the GOP failed to get a candidate on the ballot. They did manage to get 2012 candidate Jack Mobley on the ballot as a write-in. Normally that wouldn't mean much but Ashley Swearengin took Merced County with 46% of the vote and combined with David Evans to get 61% of the county vote. Swearengin and Evans took the district's other county with 54% of the vote. These two counties are in Anthony Cannella's state senate district and he got 69% and 61% in them respectively. So Mobley figures to have a big GOTV behind him in the fall. It's tough to gauge based on write-in results, but this district may be in play. Lean Democratic.

AD-32 - This district is just to the south of AD-21 and had similar statewide results. I wasn't optimistic here, but Democratic incumbent Rudy Salas was beaten 56%-44% in the primary. He did worse in 2012 and still managed a narrow general election win, but I don't think he can count on the type of general election improvement he got then. Toss-up.

AD-36 - The biggest surprise Democratic victory in 2010 was the one by Steve Fox in this Antelope Valley district. Barack Obama won it only narrowly and Fox pulled it out with the last group of provisional ballots which were counted. Democrats did get 37% of the vote in the primary this time after only getting 33% in 2012. So they have that as a reason for optimism. But that was the only race they came back from such a large deficit. Doing so again would be like a 100-1 shot winning the Kentucky Derby. Twice. Likely Republican.

AD-40 - Incumbent Republican Mike Morrell got 59% in the 2012 primary and then won the general election by only 1%. The seat is now open and Republican Marc Steinorth got only 54%. That could cause concern among Republicans and this one should be close. The GOP is down to a low number of seats and was hoping to play offense and not worry about defense. They can't do that. Toss-up.

AD-44 - This Ventura county district is similar in that an incumbent Republican got 58% of the primary vote and won narrowly, here by 6%. That incumbent isn't running for re-election and the GOP's candidate Pastor Rob McCoy is controversial and fairly conservative. Republicans did a point better here, at 55%, and could actually suffer the same primary to general election drop as 2012 and still win the district. But it'd be close. Toss-up.

AD-57 - There should be no reason to talk about this district. It's a Whittier based seat that Barbara Boxer won comfortably in 2010. Democrats won the primary with 56% of the vote in 2012 and then the general election with 63%. This year Democrats managed only 48% of the vote in the primary. What happened? Calderon happened. Incumbent Ian Calderon shares a family name with indicted state Sen. Ronald Calderon and former Assemblyman Tom Calderon. He's their nephew. When it comes to criminal activity, partisan preference can go out the window. Ian appears to have been indicted by proxy with the electorate. This district shouldn't be in play, but can't be dismissed. Likely Democratic.

AD-61 - Republican Eric Linder didn't get a primary opponent. That should make the district a slam dunk. But this is one of three GOP districts Barack Obama won, AD-40 and 44 are the other two, and a Democrat didn't qualify as a write-in. The good news for the GOP is that the candidate who appears to have gotten Top Two is Democrat Ken Park, not the party's preferred candidate Oliver Unaka. I can't find any information on Park, but I don't want to dismiss the possibility he could win since I don't have primary data to back it up. Likely Republican.

AD-65 - Republicans expected to take back this Orange County district easily. And maybe they still will, but they managed only 55% of the primary vote after getting 59% in 2012. There are decent reasons for this, e.g. Democrat Sharon Quirk-Silva is now an incumbent, but this one won't be the slam dunk Republicans were hoping for. Toss-up.

AD-66 - In 2012, Republicans won this district by 19% in the primary and then proceeded to lose it by nearly 10% in the general election. The GOP won it by only 1% in this primary and that might mean it's out of reach. Likely Democratic.

Overall, it could be a good year for Republicans if things break right. But they could also lose seats if things break wrong. The likeliest scenario is a minimal 1 seat gain, something that would mean the Democrats retain their supermajority.

No comments:

Post a Comment