Monday, June 30, 2014

California Governor Field Poll: Brown by 20

The first California gubernatorial poll is out and it's an excellent one for Jerry Brown. He's leading 52%-32%. There were eight races for statewide office in 2010 and Democrats only won by 20% in one of them. No Democrat won by that much in 2006, 2002, or 1994 although two did so in 1998. Overall, a Democrat won 3 of those 28 elections, 11%, by 20% or more. Meg Whitman lost by 13% in 2010. If this poll comes to pass, Kashkari will be a disaster. I'm not surprised by the numbers, as I expect Jerry Brown to win by 17-24%. Kahskari was sold as the better performing candidate, however. We can't know how bad Tim Donnelly would've done, but if a gubernatorial candidate doing badly hurts Republicans down ballot then Kashkari will be a big liability.

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