Friday, June 6, 2014

CA-33 Primary Voting

One of the most watched campaigns was surely the CA-33 primary. It was an open seat representing a well-heeled area that had been represented by the same person for decades. No one knew for sure how it'd turn out. The LA Times has published a graphic with voting by precinct. You can get a clear idea of who is strong where. Keep in mind that the red means Carr got the most votes. He "won" in places like Beverly Hills even though his four biggest liberal competitors might've combined for double his vote. On the other hand, go check the Peninsula. There are actually precincts where Carr beat all four of them combined.

I'll get into the analysis later, but going in we knew Carr had no chance of beating any Democrat. It's just too Democratic a district. This graphic shows that Lieu is the worst opponent for him. In 2012, Bill Bloomfield picked up Democratic South Bay votes because Waxman was too liberal for them. Because Lieu is moderate and from the South Bay, he's going to get these voters. I believe Carr thinks he can get Westside Jewish voters to vote for him, since he's a Westside Jew. Being a Jewish Republican myself I can tell you that these people have never voted for a Republican. Sure, Lieu isn't progressive enough, but neither is Carr. And Carr will vote for John Boehner for Speaker of the House. That'd be a sin enough to eliminate him.

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