California 2014 campaigns

Former Republican Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia will run for the new 28th Senate District next year. Garcia should book her ticket to Sacramento. Mimi Walters was the worst Republican candidate in 2010 and she won the district 48%-42%. She'll likely get a GOP challenger, but no one who has the experience she does. There's no incumbent. Bill Emmerson occupied a similar seat that disappeared after his term expired last year.

Republicans have six senators whose terms end next year. Of those, Jim Nielsen, Jean Fuller, Tom Berryhill, and Joel Anderson will all run for re-election in districts more Republican than the one Garcia will run in. Mark Wyland is term-limited but his seat will be safe for which ever Republican, possibly Orange County Supervisor Patricia Bates, decides to run. The sixth Republican is Anthony Cannella. He will be running in a tough competitive race in SD-12. The GOP would need to win nine seats to prevent Democrats from getting another super majority in 2014. So they'd have to win Canella's seat and two others, SD-14 in the Central Valley and SD-34 in Western Orange County.

Republican Andy Vidak and Democrat Leticia Perez are facing off in a special election for the remainder of the legislative session in a district similar to SD-14. The winner will be the favorite in 2014.

Conservative millionaire Charles Munger is lining up behind Abel Maldonado, while Americans for Tax Reform head Grover Norquist is against him. While Maldonado's past vote to increase taxes makes him controversial, at least the GOP has a candidate people are talking about.

Republican Assemblyman Brian Nestande has been endorsed by former Republican Rep. Mary Bono Mack for a run in her former seat, CA-36. This is a pure toss-up district, one that figures to be better to Republicans than it was in 2012. Nestande is considered a top flight challenger. He joins former state senator Tony Strickland, who decided last week to challenge for CA-26. These would be two of the four most vulnerable Democratic seats. Republicans don't yet have a challenger for CA-7 and CA-52, although they have top potential recruit in former San Diego mayoral candidate Carl DeMaio. There are several candidates rumored interested in CA-7.

The Democrats have three seats where they'll attempt to mount strong challenges. They've got their guy in CA-31, but no candidates in CA-10 and CA-21. CA-21 is tricky for Democrats. The district appears to lean Democratic, but Democrats don't have a deep bench there.