Former California state senator Tony Strickland filed a statement of candidacy and a statement of organization with the Federal Election Commission, indicating he's seeking a rematch with Democratic congresswoman Julia Brownley. Brownley defeated Strickland 52.7%-47.3% in 2012. The district had a Cook PVI of D+3.3 in 2012. That's Democratic enough to be troubling for a Republican but the district was D+4.1 in 2008. Both Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina won the district in 2010, so it should be winnable in a mid-term, especially one where a Democrat is in the White House.
Some people think Strickland is too conservative to win, but he won the district in state senate races and he's not nearly as conservative as people make him out to be. He was endorsed by the Humane Society in 2012. That doesn't make him a moderate but it sure makes him warm and fuzzy. Strickland is great fundraiser, experienced campaigner, and generates a lot of loyalty among volunteers. He's the best the GOP has to offer.
Brownley does have an advantage of incumbency. She didn't live in the district until 2011 and previously represented only 1/6 of it. While she certainly was known by the time of the election in 2012, people will now have had a chance to see what she can do and they should be more familiar with her.
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