CA-31: Is Gary Miller Retiring?

Many Democrats believe that winning CA-31 in 2014 will be a slam dunk. President Obama won the seat with 57.2% of the vote. Republicans don't hold any other seats where he got such a high percentage, the closest being CA-21 where he got 54.6%. The GOP lost three other seats where Obama got a similar vote by 5.5%, 1.2%, and 6.6%. So while it seems likely that Republicans would've lost CA-31 had there been a Democrat running in 2012, 2014 should be more Republican. If Republicans had the other seats in 2014, those incumbents might've improved by enough in each to win.

It also wouldn't have been unusual in 2012 for a Republican to beat Mitt Romney by the roughly 9% Miller would've needed. Frank LoBiondo, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Erik Paulsen, Bill Young, Peter King, Dave Reichert, and David Valadao all ran in districts that Obama won and beat Mitt Romney by that amount or more.

There's little debate that Miller is the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the country. Yet he wasn't on the list of Republican incumbents in the NRCC's Patriot program to protect incumbents. Two California Republicans, Jeff Denham and David Valadao, are on the list, even though they not only don't have opponents in 2014, but their most formidable opponents aren't running. It's possible Democrats won't mount a strong challenge against either in 2014, but look to go hard at them with a more Democratic electorate in 2016.

Does the NRCC think the seat is lost? That seems unlikely, because despite Democratic assertions a Republican can certainly win the seat, especially in a mid-term. Carly Fiorina won the district in her 2010 challenge against incumbent Barbara Boxer. Even if the NRCC thought Miller was a long-shot, it wouldn't cost them any money to put Miller in their Patriot program. They won't need to commit that for over a year. The only thing the NRCC is asking for right now is contributions to the candidates' re-election campaigns. If Miller is running for re-election, then donations don't hurt much even if the NRCC sees it as a waste of money.

Another possible explanation is that Gary Miller is retiring. There was buzz about it earlier this month. Subsequently, however, Miller filed for re-election. So he's running? The filing might be a formality. He did it in case he decided to run. A lot of incumbents say they're running and then later retire. The filing lists Gary Miller for Congress as having a Diamond Bar address. Miller lived in Diamond Bar and his campaign office was there. That home, and office, were outside the district. So he moved to Rancho Cucamonga and so did his campaign office. Did Miller fail to change that with the FEC? Or did someone file old paperwork?

Is Gary Miller Retiring? I wouldn't dismiss the possibility.