Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar, a Democrat, officially announced a challenge to Republican Congressman Gary Miller in CA-31. On paper Aguilar looks like a good candidate. He's young, handsome, Hispanic, and a mayor, a position often looked at as non-partisan by voters. Redlands only has 68k people, however, so it's only a small part of a district dominated by San Bernardino, Rancho Cucamonga, Rialto, and Upland. Miller called Diamond Bar home until recently, but he moved to Rancho Cucamonga, in 2011 to live in the district.
CA-31 was the only Democratic leaning district in the state where a Democrat failed to qualify top two in 2012. Aguilar was the handpicked DCCC candidate, but he entered the race several months after two other candidates and failed to consolidate Democratic support. The fourth candidate in the race, Justin Kim, got strong support from the Chinese community. Aguilar has gotten in early and it's unlikely strong Democratic rivals or two strong Republicans will be in the race in 2014. So he should make top two.
In the similar CA-41, just south of this district, Democrat Mark Takano, who wasn't viewed as a strong candidate, had a one-sided win over Republican John Tavaglione, who was viewed as a strong candidate. Takano won because the district leaned so far Democratic that the relative strength of the candidates didn't matter much. Barack Obama won CA-41 62%-36% and CA-31 57%-41%. So CA-31 doesn't have a partisan lean that's nearly as strong but Aguilar doesn't need to win the districts by the 18% Takano won his.
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