Tuesday, April 2, 2013

CA-17: Ro Khanna is in

As I indicated might happen last month, Democrat Ro Khanna is challenging Democratic congressman Mike Honda in CA-17. Before California's top two system went into effect, a Democrat challenging an incumbent in a primary would have gotten a ho-hum. After Eric Swalwell and Gloria Negrete-McLeod knocked off incumbents in last November's general election.

The district is 44.4% Democrats/18.9% Republicans/36.7% other. It has the highest percentage of "other" in the state. It's got a lower percentage of Democrats than CA-15 or CA-35, where the Democratic incumbent lost, and a similar percentage to CA-33, where Henry Waxman was almost beaten.

Khanna's winning strategy should be:

1. Firm up support with young Democrats by portraying Honda is an over-the-hill out-of-touch creature of Washington. As much as young Democrats respect old progressives, there's a strong appeal for someone of their generation. Khanna needs to get around 30% of the Democratic vote.

2. Go pro-business. Honda has insisted he won't vote for any immigration bill that isn't right for low income unskilled undocumented immigrants. So he voted against the Republican STEM visa bill for high tech. Liberals who work at Yahoo, eBay, Cisco, and Oracle may be sympathetic to the Democratic immigration position, but they'd have to like someone who puts them first.

3. Meet with Republicans. Let them know that you're a good Democrat, but aren't hostile to them the way the incumbent is. Either keep all Republicans out of the primary or flood the zone with them. If a Republican takes 28% of the vote the way Evelyn Li did Khanna may be DOA.

4. Don't go hard after Honda yet. Doing so can create ill will among Democrats and he doesn't need to win the primary. Eric Swalwell and Gloria Negrete McLeod both finished second in the mid-30's in the primaries and won in the general.

5. Be a Democrat, but own the center. This plays off the previous points, but Khanna needs to come across as a good Democrat but one who'll be more attractive to the 55% of people who aren't Democrats and moderate Democrats.

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