CA-31 was a major debacle for Democrats, perhaps their biggest of the last cycle. It seems likely that just having someone with a D next to his name might’ve resulted in a Democratic win.
The district is by far the most Democratic held by a Republican. The hope is that this time having a candidate with a D next to his name will result in a win. It’s possible that might be true. Redlands mayor Pete Aguilar, the failed 2012 candidate, declared early. Some Democrats hoped he’d be the only candidate in the race. It’s early in the cycle for challengers to declare their candidacy. Democrats don’t yet have candidates challenging Republicans in CA-10 or CA-21.
Then Democratic attorney Eloise Gomez Reyes expressed interest in the race. She was followed by former congressman Joe Baca declaring he was running. Now Danny Tillman, a San Bernardino City Unified School District board member, had decided to enter the race.
It wouldn’t be surprising if Democrats might be having a little déjà vu.
Why it won’t happen
1. While two members of the same party qualifying was something people like myself saw as a possibility, Democrats were caught flat-footed at the possibility in 2012. They won’t be surprised this time and will take steps to prevent it.
2. The two lesser Democrats look like fairly weak candidates.
3. Republicans would need two strong candidates to pull it off. That happened in 2012 when a sitting congressman and a state senator decided to run. There’s no indication that such a candidate will enter the race.
4. The result was still a fluke, even with two strong Republicans in the race. Gary Miller had 26.7% of the vote to Bob Dutton’s 24.8%. It could’ve just as easily been 29.2%-22.3%. Dutton wouldn’t have qualified in that scenario. Miller’s low percentage might’ve been due to him being new to the district. He’s the incumbent now and might do better. Certainly getting two candidates around 25% of the vote isn’t something you can plan to do.
Why it could happen
1. Nancy Pelosi continually claimed that Republicans couldn’t take back the House in 2010 because Democrats were prepared. That didn’t work out quite the way she thought it would. The entire Democratic establishment effort was behind Pete Aguilar in 2012. It didn’t even get him half the Democratic vote. The establishment getting behind one candidate can often result in voters going the other way.
2. Democrats don’t do well in California primaries. In the neighboring more Democratic CA-41, Democrat Mark Takano won 59%-41%, but Democrats only took 45.5% of the primary vote. Democrats have been trying to solve this problem for years. Yet their voters don’t show up, even in good Democratic years. You really can’t count on changing that, especially in heavily Hispanic district.
In 2010, Aguilar went up against three underfunded political unknowns. Each still managed to take at least 5.7% of the vote and got 25% of the overall vote. If you look at the 2012 primaries, unknown underfunded Democrats often took 7-12% of the overall primary vote. This time Aguilar will have to contend with Joe Baca. Aguilar and Baca would really be hurt if they lost 7-10% of the vote that goes to Democrats. If the two are splitting 37% of the vote, it’s possible neither will top 20%.
3. Republicans do have candidates who could pull in a lot of votes. Dutton could run again. Assemblyman Mike Morrell could run. The best candidate would be state senator Bill Emmerson. While Emmerson doesn’t live in the district he represents much of it currently. Emmerson isn’t up for re-election. So he wouldn’t need to give up his seat if he were to run. I’m pretty sure he’s term limited and can’t run for re-election in 2016. So he has nothing to lose by running and he’s two years away from looking for a new office anyway.
The GOP does have a deep bench in San Bernardino county. If a Superpac got behind a candidate, they could help him tremendously.
I don’t think two Republicans finishing 1st and 2nd will happen again, just because it was such a fluke the first time. That said, the Democratic field is shaping up to create that scenario. If a second strong Republican gets in, it could happen.
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