The Flash Report is reporting that Republican congressman Buck McKeon, CA-25, may retire at the end of the term. This wouldn't be surprising, since McKeon is 74 years old and has come across as fed up with congress. McKeon is chairman of the House Armed Services Committee and a long time defender of the military. He sounded very frustrated with the sequestration defense cuts. If he returns next term, he will no longer be chairman of the Armed Services Committee.
The Antelope Valley is a long time Republican stronghold. Fleischman speculates that BOE member George Runner, Senator Steve Knight, former Assemblyman Cameron Smyth, Assemblyman Scott Wilk, and Chairman of the Ventura County Board of Supervisors Peter Foy as possible candidates. Barbara Boxer got 40.7% here in 2010 and Jerry Brown got 42.9%. So Democrats got swamped in a mid-term. President Barack Obama narrowly lost the district, after winning it in 2008. It remained at an R+3 PVI. It's possible it could be competitive later in the decade, maybe even in 2016. Of course the Democrats have no bench here. A Republican would have to run a truly horrible campaign to lose it in 2014.
One name Fleischman introduces and dismisses is former state senator Tony Strickland. Strickland is from outside the district and might have an uphill climb to win it. He sent out a fundraising letter to supporters today announcing his run for congress. He doesn't mention what district number he's running in or Julia Brownley in the letter. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the possibility.