Wednesday, March 6, 2013

CA-52: Why Scott Peters should fear Carl DeMaio

Democrat Scott Peters managed to knock off incumbent Republican congressman Brian Bilbray last November to capture the CA-52 congressional seat. It was a nail biter that Peters wrapped up on provisional ballots. This seat is especially vulnerable for the Democrats. Governor Jerry Brown got 45.8% of the two party vote in 2010, his lowest percentage of all the seats currently held by Democratic congressmen.

Roll Call has a story today that former San Diego mayoral candidate Carl DeMaio is eyeing the seat. He'd make a formidable candidate. Below are the vote totals for the San Diego mayoral race and the CA-52 race broken down to show the overlap. The CA-52 in the mayoral race and the SD in the congressional race are the same area.

In DeMaio's match-up with Bob Filner, CA-52 was his strong area. He lost the race because Filner cleaned up elsewhere. On the other hand, Brian Bilbray won the small area outside the city by 22% but lost the city. For DeMaio to beat Peters he'll just need to keep the race fairly even in an area he beat Bob Filner by 13%.

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