Tuesday, March 19, 2013

California Voting by Ethnic Group

There's been a lot of discussion over the Hispanic vote, especially since Latinos voted strongly for Barack Obama. According to exit polls, Hispanics were 10% of the vote nationwide and 22% of the vote in California. That doesn't mean that Hispanics showed up at the polls. The chart below shows the California CVAP (citizens voting age population) and estimates the 2012 turn-out based on the exit poll.

I needed to reallocate the "other" category to the other groups, since the U.S. census lists far fewer people in "other" than the exit poll takers did.

This calculation includes only citizens. Even excluding non-citizens, Hispanics had a very low participation rate of 36%. Asians, at 40%, weren't much higher. Blacks, a very loyal voting block for President Obama, had the highest turn-out, at 66%. Hispanics do matter because there are so many of them in California, but they are still voting at low rates.

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