Wednesday, March 20, 2013

GOP California Bench

As they did with the Democrats last week, Roll Call has published an article on the California GOP farm team. The Democratic article mostly focused on Democratic held seats, most of which won't come open any time soon. I didn't comment because congressman Juan Vargas, who was just elected to congress, isn't retiring any time soon. Vargas just had his 52nd birthday. With how long California congressmen serve, I fully expect his seat to come open in 2040. Do we really need a blog post analyzing that?

Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar will likely be challenging congressman Gary Miller, which I looked at previously. The Republican list does contain some of those seats. Congressmen Ed Royce, Ken Calvert, and Darrell Issa aren't retiring any time soon, although it's possible Buck McKeon or Dana Rohrabacher could retire. It shouldn't be news that the Republican bench is deep in heavily Republican districts. Since I don't know if the seats will come open, I'll leave that to them.
They did talk more about challengers to Democratic congressmen:

CA-3 - Kim Vann wasn't a terrible candidate, but wasn't that good of one. The district was D+4, which should be out of reach, although Carly Fiorina won it. It's a conceivable win. in a perfect world, the GOP would have a better candidate, but they could do far worse.

CA-07 - Former Rep. Doug Ose and state Sen. Ted Gaines are mentioned. They've been mentioned before. Neither lives in the district now, but they'd both be good recruits.

CA-16 - This is D+8, but a Central Valley D+8. Fiorina won here too. Supervisor Andreas Borgeas wouldn't be bad, but Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin or one of the other former Fresno mayors, Alan Autry or Jim Patterson, would be better.

CA-26 - Tony Strickland is a possibility for another try, but they also mention baseball pitcher Jeff Suppan. Athletes can make good candidates because voters like them and they have name ID. Suppan isn't exactly well known and has never pitched locally. He's from Encino and has a restaurant in Woodland Hills. I don't know where he lives, but both of those cities are in CA-30, not CA-26. Of course, congresswoman Julia Brownley didn't live in CA-26 until she decided to run.

CA-36 - While the bench is deep here, Assemblymember Brian Nestande is the only name that I've heard mentioned. He should be a good recruit.

CA-52 - As I mentioned previously, DeMaio would be a formidable candidate. There are other good recruits, but he's number one.

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