How Negrete-McLeod wins the election

State Senator Gloria Negrete McLeod is in for a tough election against fellow Democrat and incumbent Joe Baca. While the June vote doesn't count in November, her 9 point drubbing puts her behind the congressman. CA-35 has a Republican registration of 27.3%. While that's not a lot, it's the highest of any district where two Democrats are running against each other. Meg Whitman got 36% of the two party vote. Carly Fiorina got 38%. Even John McCain got 33%.

There'll be a good share of Republican voters in the fall and no Republican for them to vote for. How can the candidates get them? My advice has been not to pander, but instead find something that makes you more attractive to the other party that doesn't hurt you with your own. There's a major vote today in the state senate on high speed rail. Republicans, for the most part, oppose the high speed rail project. All 15 Republican state senators are expected to vote against it. A vote against the project, particularly if it fails would enable her to walk into any Republican meeting with a talking point and would fit perfectly on a mailer. On the other hand, Joe Baca can send a mailer highlighting her "yes" vote. He might've also voted "yes," but the doesn't have to vote. It's a huge issue that could put her from losing Republicans 20%-15% to winning them 25%-10%. Yes, it really could be worth 10 points in the polls.

What about Democrats? There are twice as many in the district. That'd be a gamble, but Ontario isn't exactly Santa Monica. This isn't a progressive haven and the bullet train won't be coming anywhere near here. The project doesn't figure to be as popular here as it would be there. She could sell it as saving money for a higher priority, like schools.

It's a tough vote and could be a tough sell for Democrats. But it'd likely lock up Republicans in one swoop.