County Numbers and District Numbers

It was pointed out to me that I was applying the county number equally to every congressional district in the county. Since it had been reported that Hispanic turn-out was low than surely those districts had the most elevated Republican turn-out.

While I don't have turn-out by congressional district, I do have absentees by congressional district, thanks to Scott Lay. Thanks, Scott. I have no idea why the full election isn't available somewhere. I divided three counties that have multiple districts, with almost all of the districts entirely in the county. What I saw was that there wasn't much of a difference.



In Sacramento County it was the suburban seat, not the urban one, that moves most to the right. Granted, 2% isn't much but the city seat actually was more Democratic. Riverside County has the most Latinos in CA-41, but that was the one that moved the least Republican. San Diego County's majority minority district is CA-51. That did have the most movement towards the Republicans. But it was only slightly higher than others and the second highest shift was in CA-52, the least Latino district. You may note that the numbers on the right are more Republican than those on the left. Assuming everything in the source material is accurate, this likely means that election day voting was more Republican than absentee voting.

I'm loathe to apply the district numbers, since the vote was incomplete and the numbers are all equal to or more Democratic than the final county numbers. It's possible that CA-41 wasn't as Republican as the numbers I used and CA-7 wasn't as Democratic. That'd certainly make a difference, as the formula heavily relies on adjusting turn-out. CA-7 might not be Lungren 55%-45%, but Lungren 53%-47% and an adjustment of 2-3 points would put John Tavaglione slightly ahead of Mark Takano.