Tuesday, July 24, 2012

California Catch-up

The NRCC is targeting the 4 competitive Democratic open seats with mobile billboards. These aren't that expensive and won't be seen by a lot of people but they will get into the media. I don't know how many votes that gets you, however.

Ex-rep. Ellen Tauscher is backing Eric Swalwell. All of the current congressional delegation are backing Pete Stark but Tauscher cares about the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Stark, who is unapologetically far left, doesn't. In the past being hostile to companies engaged in defense would garner Stark more support with voters. Now that he has to worry about a candidate who can not only take Republicans, but also independents and Democrats, he has to change his tune. And that might be worse for him. No one is going to believe him on the center and right, and the left doesn't like you walking away from their positions. If Swalwell runs a decent campaign, Stark loses.

Polls taken by Republicans and Democrats in CA-47 show very different results. The Republican poll has Alan Lowenthal up 3, while the Democratic one has him up 11. If you take the middle of the two, it's not bad for DeLong, especially considering I have him losing by 10. On the other hand, I have the Capps-Maldonado race as even.

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