The state party — once a symbol of Republican hope and geographical reach and which gave the nation Ronald Reagan (and Richard M. Nixon) —
Ronald Reagan last ran for statewide office 42 years ago and Richard Nixon won one statewide election 62 years ago. No, the Republican party isn’t the same as it was in the 1950’s and 1960’s, but I doubt it’s the same anywhere else either.
Registered Republicans now account for just 30 percent of the California electorate, and are on a path that analysts predict could drop them to No. 3 in six years, behind Democrats, who currently make up 43 percent, and independent voters, with 21 percent.
Independent voters are independent of a party. Hence the name. They have been increasing but part of that is that California had a ridiculously low percentage of independents for years. Right not that 21% is one of the lower percentages. In New Jersey 47% are independent. In Massachusetts it’s 52%. In Iowa it’s 39%. Independents recently passed Democrats in Kansas. Did you hear about that?
The people they quote are an odd mix. They quote several disgruntled Republicans who have left the party or are no longer active. How do people who have an ax to grind regarded as experts on the current state of the party? They do quote Tom Del Beccaro and Kevin McCarthy but they don’t address the issues that the disgruntled people do.
The party’s decline in California has occurred even as Republicans have prospered elsewhere. In 2010 — when Republicans made huge gains across the nation — they were wiped out here in races for governor and the Senate.
What they fail to mention is that the last time a Republican won a senate seat in California was in 1988. So this was the party’s 8th consecutive senate loss. Nothing has changed here. Since 1974 Republicans have won 0-2 statewide offices in 7 of 10 elections. Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected in an odd recall election that didn’t require the type of campaign that usually is mounted. Republicans have only won 4 of 29 statewide regular elections since 1998 and two of those were for insurance commissioner, and another one was Schwarzenegger’s re-election. The 1980’s were similarly awful.
Obviously that doesn’t paste a rosy picture on the Republican party here, but it’s the same picture that existed in almost every election going back 40 years. In 1986 two Republican statewide candidates got 29.8% and 26.4% of the vote. The lowest in 2010 was 36.1%.
It doesn’t register voters. It doesn’t recruit candidates. It doesn’t raise money. The Republican Party in the state institutionally has become a small ideological club that is basically in the business of hunting out heretics.
This is an odd statement because we are registering voters, recruiting candidates, and raising money. Exactly who is Mr. Schmidt talking to? Can you please name some of these heretics we’re out hunting?
“When you look at the population growth, the actual party is shrinking,” Mr. Schmidt said. “It’s becoming more white. It’s becoming older.“
When exactly was the Republican party not white? In 1994, Michael Huffington got 26% of the Latino vote and 14% of the Black vote. In 2010 Carly Fiorina got 29% of the Latino vote and 17% of the Black vote.
In 1992 Bruce Hershenson lost the age 30-44 vote by 12 points, the 45-59 vote by 9, and won the 60+ vote by 11. Carly Fiorina lost the age 30-44 vote by 13 points, the 45-59 vote by 7, and won the 60+ vote by 8. It’s still the same as it was then.
The slide began in 1994, when Republicans rallied around a voter initiative, Proposition 187, that would have made it illegal for the government to provide services for undocumented aliens. That campaign created a political rupture with Hispanics at the very moment when their numbers were exploding.
The slide actually started in 1974, 20 years earlier. As shown above Republican candidates have never done well with Hispanics. So I don’t see a rapture.
Republicans in California are still too closely identified with socially conservative positions — on immigration, the environment, abortion and gay rights — that have put them outside the mainstream in a changing electorate.
Democrats made up 57% of the California registrations in 1976. That number dropped every year through 2007. In fact, Democrats dropped from 57% to 42% of the voters during this period. Republicans went from 35% to 34%. There was an uptick when Obama got elected but that trend has continued. Since 2009, Democrats have 284,000 voters and Republicans 220,000. If Republicans are outside the mainstream then Democrats must be even more outside the mainstream.
Republicans hold the same positions they’ve always held and they are doing well in the same places they’ve always done well and are doing poorly in the same places they’ve always done poorly. Where exactly are the Democrats chipping into Republican territory? San Bernardino County where their candidates finished 3rd and 4th in the recent CA-31 primary? The Democrats had a pathetic congressional recruiting class. A year ago they were touting picking up 6-8 congressional seats. Right now it looks like they’ll pick up 0. None. Republicans may even end up gaining a seat or two.
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