Beating Henry Waxman, The Sequel

Last year I laid out a scenario where Henry Waxman could be beat. If Waxman faced off against a moderate Democrat in a general election, he'd almost certainly lose. The district is Democratic enough that a Democrat will beat a Republican but this is a district that Steve Cooley won in his 2010 race for attorney general.

In a race with a moderate Democrat, however, Waxman would get very little Republican support, since he's widely disliked by Republicans. The Republican areas in the district, south of LAX, have never been represented by him. He's not facing a moderate Democrat but he's not facing a Republican either. His opponent is Republican turned independent Bill Bloomfield. Bloomfield was Republican enough to suck votes away from the Republican on the ballot, Christopher David. Bloomfield spent $1,399,714. David spent $8,182. He spent $7,500 of that on a fundraiser's fee. That's right. The person he hired to fundraise raised pretty much enough to pay her own salary.

Bloomfield blanketed the district with signs, advertising, phone calls, and mailers. He must've sent enough to Republican households to convince them he was the Republican in the race.

Since Bloomfield is running as NPP it's conceivable he could peel off enough Democrats and independents who might not like Waxman or would rather have an independent in office. Waxman has noticed Waxman's plan is to define Bloomfield as a Republican, a label that would destroy Bloomfield's chances.

Bloomfield will try to run as an independent, who like many other independents got fed up with his political party. Do they want a liberal ideologue who's been part of the Washington problem or someone fresh who doesn't owe anything to anyone? It's a powerful message, one that could resonate with independents and Democrats in the South Bay who'll be voting for Barack Obama.

That won't be easy but if people were looking for a centrist result from Top Two, Bloomfield might be it.