Wednesday, June 13, 2012


Having never bought for national congressional races I find it interesting looking at the reasoning behind the NRCC buy. If I were planning, I'd concentrate on the Lean/Toss-up districts. Your ROI on Likely districts is pretty low. You should keep yours and theirs are too tough.

I'd recommend districts with the most vulnerable congressmen, but I wonder if a generic Republican or shared ad is effective. You may need to talk about to talk about an individual candidate. Still, brand image has a halo effect, even if it's not specifically about the candidate.

I'd then look at the cost for running a schedule, say 500 TRPs, to support each candidate and recommend running in the most efficient ones. Why spend $100,000 to win a district when you can win another one spending $50,000. Of course there are other factors, including a candidate's strength/bank account and his or her opponent's. There may be political reasons for supporting one candidate over another, especially incumbents.

I'd buy Duluth and La Crosse-Eau Claire for Duffy. Maybe they'll add those later. I'd also buy Duluth for Chip Cravaack. Most of his population is in this district and it's a cheap market. It'd be bad planning to buy Minneapolis for him. The cost would be enormous for who you're reaching. I'd stick with cable for them.

The NRCC has to know this. I'd assume that this buy would support Paulsen, Bachmann, or Kline. None are considered to be in serious danger, however.

If they're supporting Johnson, Wheeling-Stuebenville would be a better buy than Youngstown.

I can't see buying Raleigh to target McIntyre. Wilmington makes a lot of sense.

Champaign/Springfield makes more sense for IL-13. St. Louis has to be for IL-12.

What's not on there:
Fresno-Visalia - They see CA-16 and 21 as low priorities.
San Diego - Hello? Brian Bilbray on line 2.
Santa Barbara - Isn't Maldonado a Young Gun?
Tallahassee - FL-2
Orlando - Stop Allen Grayson and support Dan Webster.
Des Moines - Tom Latham has a lot of money.
Albany, Buffalo, Plattsburg, Rochester, Syracuse - A lot of New York opportunity. Maybe they won't evaluate it until after the primary.
South Bend - Small market. Big return. This one isn't wrapped up.
Savannah and Augusta - John Barrow won't go quietly.

Overall it's a decent target list, but I'd adjust it.

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