Friday, June 1, 2012

Another Registration Report

The California Secretary of State put out her registration report from 15 days prior to the primary. This follows on the heels of her 60 Days Prior to Close of Registration and 154 Days Prior to Close of Registration reports.

In the last 45 days both the Republicans and Democrats have gained registration. While that's unusual for the way things have been going in California, both parties likely had voter registration drives and the Secretary of State was probably done purging the rolls of people whose registration is no longer valid. The Democrats went up 34k voters, the Republicans 22k, and other parties/DTS went up by 60k.

That sounds like good news for the Democrats. It is, except Democrats added 29% of new registrants to Republicans 19%. This 10 point differential is lower than the previous 13.18% differential. As a result, Democrats now have a 13.15% lead over the GOP. That's not a lot but it was over a small period of time and it continues the trend where the two parties get closer. Since the 2009 registration report Democrats have lost 271k party members while Republicans have lost 204k. Others have gained 295k.

The difference is relatively small and Republicans have narrowed the gap by a whopping 0.25%. The only reason it's worth mentioning is that every story is all about how Republicans are declining in membership due to extremist positions, with no thought given that the Democrats are losing a similar but slightly higher number.

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