Sunday, June 3, 2012

California Primary Preview Part IV

CA-21 – This should be a no brainer. The Democrats have a mediocre candidate who doesn’t live in or currently represent the district. The Republicans have a rising star. Democrats have gone hard after registration here, but Hispanics are notoriously unreliable voters. Prediction: Valadao (R) 57% Xlong (D) 30%, Hernandez (D) 13%

CA-16 – If I’m right and Democratic turn-out means lower Democratic vote totals Jim Costa’s vote total could also cause panic. Prediction: Costa (D) 41%, Whelan (R) 25%, Tacherra (R) 14%

CA-3 – I think John Garamendi is ripe to be beaten but Democratic absentee ballots are actually coming in here. I think he’ll clear 50% and not cause great panic. Prediction: Garamendi (D) 52%, Vann (R) 34%, Tubbs (R) 9%

CA-24 – Honestly I’m having a tough time with the tea leaves here. Maldonado has actually spent much of the money that kept bouncing to and from his pocket. But is it enough to overcome the conservative resistance to him? Prediction: Capps (D) 43%, Maldonado (R) 26%, Mitchum (R) 24%

CA-41 – Like CA-31 this is a district that looks good for the GOP this year but is likely to flip this decade. I think it’ll be close on Tuesday, but the real election is in November. Prediction: Takano (D) 41%, Tavaglione (R) 40%, Nevenic (D) 9%

CA-9 – As much as I’d like to think the GOP will do well here, my model tells me otherwise. If this happens, write off the district. Prediction: McNerney (D) 57%, Gill (R) 34%, McDonald (D) 9%

CA-7 – Like CA-41 I don’t think who wins Tuesday will mean that much in November. Prediction: Lungren (R) 48%, Bera (D) 45%, Tuma (L) 4%

CA-10 – Chad Condit is one of those NPP wildcard candidates that the centrist/independent lovers have been touting on the Internet. I don’t think that much of them, but don’t want to dismiss them either. Prediction: Denham (R) 50%, Hernandez (D) 30%, Condit (N) 11%

CA-15 – With no Republican this is a shot in the dark. So far Republicans have returned 29% of the ballot, even though they only have 23.5% of the party registration. Pareja is a Tea Party guy, but will Republicans flock to someone who is NPP and hasn’t spent money? I could see a lot of votes against Stark. If that’s the case, Swalwell will do better than this. Prediction: Stark (D) 43%, Swalwell (D) 39%, Pareja (N) 18%

CA-35 – There’s been little press here compared to the CA-15 match-up. There’s also no NPP Republicans could think is a good alternative for them. Prediction: Baca (D) 45%, McLeod (D) 44%, Vieyra (G) 11%

CA-44 - I see Janice Hahn doing a Kaptur here. Prediction: Hahn (D) 57%, Richardson (D) 43%

CA-20 – Will there be concern about Sam Farr? Doubtful. Prediction: Farr (D) 46%, Taylor (R) 21%, LeBarre (R) 13%

CA-25 – Buck McKeon should be on auto pilot Prediction: McKeon (R) 57%, Rogers (D) 25%, Wright (R) 14%

CA-29 – They are getting a lot more Republican ballots back than you’d expect in a district with no GOP candidate. Prediction: Cardenas (D) 54%, Hernandez (N) 32%, Valdez (D) 14%

CA-51 – Another district with an overabundance of Republican ballots returned. The three GOP candidates have raised $354 between them. Prediction: Vargas (D) 27%, Ducheny (D) 24%, Gionis (R) 23%

CA-45 – I’m not bothering with safe Republican districts, but I’m including this one because they have a prized Democratic recruit. Ballot returns make this one ugly. Prediction: Campbell (R) 55%, Kang (D) 27%, Webb (R) 18%

CA-39 – This one has a prized Democratic recruit also. Where has the money gone? Republicans have an 8 point registration edge but a 23 point ballot return edge. Prediction: Royce (R) 68%, Chen (D) 24%, Mulattieri (N) 8%

No comments:

Post a Comment