Wednesday, June 6, 2012

California Primary Analysis

I'm sure some of my readers are waiting for me to sautee up the crow on the CA-30 race. I'll save that one for later and just look at the races which are supposed to be competitive. I'm going to enjoy the moment for calling the CA-31 results. Anyone else have Miller-Dutton in a Democratic district? I predicted the top two correctly in 45 congressional districts, 42 in the correct order. I got the winner in 7 others. I only missed both in CA-8. Recount!

Let's start with the legislature

Senate - The people who said this redistricting will lead to more competitive races were wrong wrong wrong. The senate will be 27 Democrats and 12 Republicans. The 27th district will be the only competitive race. The Democrats get their 2/3.

Assembly - Democrats didn't do as well here. I see 48 Democrats 28 Republicans and 4 competitive. Three of those districts were ones I thought were Safe Democratic. So I reserve judgment that they'll actually be competitive.

AD-8 is likely to be competitive. Republicans won 52.8%-42.7%. I'm assuming elevated Republican turn-out makes it competitive. This might be Safe Republican.

The Republicans fell short of what people thought they'd do in the state senate. And expectations were low. They did better in the assembly than expected and Democrats will only get 2/3 in the senate. And the GOP will pick up at least one senate seat in 2014.

The ratings I'm comparing to are the consensus from the forecasters.

CA-3 – Garamendi got 52.8% of the vote. If Republican turn-out is as elevated as the absentees were, he’s got this one. Right now I’ll stick with Likely Democratic. (was Lean Democratic)

CA-7 – Dan Lungren exceeded expectations and won by 12 points. This district could be safe, but for now I’m going with Likely Republican. (was toss-up)

CA-9 – I predicted a number of incumbents in the 40’s who didn’t finish that way. Jerry McNerney only got 48.4%. This is more competitive than people thought. Toss-up. (was Lean Democratic)

CA-10 – Jeff Denham only got 47.7%, so you can’t put this one in the vault. He beat Democrats 47.7%-34.0% with the rest going to NPP. It’s tough to see Hernandez getting that many votes. Likely Republican. (was Toss-up)

CA-16 – The Democrats won this district 51%-49%. That’s way more competitive than Democrats thought it’d be and will still be so with better Democratic turn-out. Lean Democratic (was Likely Democratic)

CA-21 – If there’s a theme here, it’s how disappointing this day was for Democrats. They didn’t get their preferred candidate and he wasn’t much anyway. David Valadao got too many votes to overcome. Safe Republican (was Lean Republican)

CA-24 – Lois Capps’ total ended up dropping as the night wore on. The Republicans beat her here 51.2%-46.5%. That sounds better than it is, because absentees indicate Republicans turned out en masse. Still it’s a toss-up. (was Lean Democratic)

CA-26 – I expressed disappointment last night, even though Tony Strickland exceed my expectations dramatically. I thought Linda Parks wouldn’t get that many Republicans, but I think they all abandoned her. Strickland did beat the Democrats by 7 points, but I’m hesitant to put it in the Republican column. Toss-up (was Toss-up)

CA-31 – If the results hold, Republicans picked up a district they wouldn’t be favored in and is trending so far left that it’s bound to go Democratic eventually. If Democrats can actually come up with a candidate who can finish Top Two. Safe Republican (was Toss-up)

CA-36 – Yes, Mary Bono Mack won 58%-42%. I thought the turn-out would put her at 64%. Pending the turn-out numbers I have to put it as Likely Republican. (was Likely Republican)

CA-41 – Another district where Republicans exceeded my expectations. I saw this as going 50%-50% or 51%-49% Republicans. Instead the GOP got 54.8% of the vote. Lean Republican (was Lean Democratic)

CA-47 - Steve Kuykendall cratered. I’m not going to go too indepth here, but I wrote up a series of recommendations for him. He said he gave them to his people. I never heard from them after that. I don’t think he listened to any of my recommendations. I didn’t expect him to get Top Two, but I didn’t think he’d do this bad. Democrats won the district by a little less than a point. Absentees were 42%D-41%R. The district is 42%D-31%R. I think it’s safe, but I’m going to make it Likely Democratic until I see turn-out. (was Likely Democratic)

CA-52 – I know Brian Bilbray exceeded my prediction, but Republicans overall fell 6.5% below what I expected. What’s more Democrats exceeded my expectations by 9.6%. The difference was disappointing NPPs. It isn’t as bad as I’m making it out to be, but I think it’s Lean Democratic pending turn-out (was toss-up)

Overall a great night for the GOP. I think 8 districts moved right, 2 went left, and 3 were as expected.

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