I spent the day in the southern half of the district and you wouldn’t know Henry Waxman was running. Maybe there are Waxman signs in Santa Monica, which is Waxman country, but I’ve been in Santa Monica three times in the last two weeks and I haven’t seen one. I’m certain there aren’t any south of the airport. While Waxman expressed a desire to meet “his new constituents” I’m skeptical that he has. There’s no map of the new district on his website, although he does mention the cities if you look hard enough.
Bill Bloomfield has blanketed the district with signs. He used to be very involved in the Republican party but left the party, co-founded No Labels, as in now an NPP. He’s left some ruffled feathers in the GOP and his ability to get Republicans votes is unknown. Steve Collett is the Libertarian in the race. He too has spent his own money.
The sole Republican is Paulista Chris David. I met him and he seems to have a good head on his shoulders, but he is only 25 years old and has raised barely enough to pay for parking on the Promenade. I have a rule of thumb that a Republican will advance in any district where Republican congressional candidates got 30% or more in 2010. I’m making an exception here. Prediction: Waxman (D) 40%, Bloomfield (N) 22%, David (R) 16%
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