I've been filming for the last week, so I'm a little behind. Retiring Republican congressman Elton Gallegly has joined congressman Darrell Issa in endorsing Howard Berman.
The CA-30 race turn-out will likely have 30% Republicans. If one candidate dominates Republicans, he can get less than 40% of everybody else and still win. If he splits independents he can lose Democrats 2 to 1. I was expecting Republicans to get 35% of the vote in the primary. Yet they only got 23%. That means someone picked off roughly 1/3 of people who normally vote Republican. It's unlikely all that went to Hoard Berman, because, if it did he'd have gotten slaughtered with Democrats. My guess, however, is that he took 65-70% of the Republican vote that defected.
If he did siphon off that many votes he certainly doesn't need me to tell him how to get Republican votes. I imagine, however, that Democrats picked off the low hanging fruit, moderate Republicans who'll vote for a Democrat and people thinking that voting for Berman or Sherman will give them a voice into who their rep is.
That said, the remainder might need a lot more work. And if Berman has a deficit of Democrats, as I suspect, he can't afford Republicans leaving the oval blank. I wonder how much the endorsements help. I'm wouldn't be excited Darrell Issa endorsed Howard Berman, unless he did so for a compelling reason that will benefit Republicans. And Berman's low low ACU score suggests he has no interest in that. My cynical view is that Berman is a Washington insider who is as chummy with Republicans in the California delegation as he is with the state's Democrats. I wouldn't vote Howard Berman because Elton Gallegly likes to share a drink with him now and again.
Or course Darrell Issa just held Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt. If I were a Democrat I'd vote for the guy Issa doesn't endorse.