Thursday, May 1, 2014

Nell Newhouse is wrong.

Mitt Romney's pollster, fresh off his brilliant 2012 campaign, predicts we won't have a wave this year. Why? Let him tell it.

Waves happen, he said, when the other party isn't prepared. "I don't think we're catching anybody by surprise."
Newhouse is repeating an old line that's been proven untrue repeatedly. Waves happened in 2006, 2008, and 2010 and the other party was prepared. In 2006, Republicans knew it was going to be a tough election. Bush was unpopular, spending was out of control, the Iraq War was going badly, and Republicans were getting arrested left and right. In 2008, Republicans knew it was going to be an even tougher election. The party was extremely unpopular and Bush was extraordinarily unpopular. Only hardcore Republicans wanted to vote for the party. In 2010, Democrats might have been unaware of what was building, but the January 2010 Massachusetts Senate election was a big wake up call. All year Democrats kept saying that waves only happen when a party is unprepared and they were prepared. I have a clip of Nancy Pelosi saying just that. Democrats were prepared. They still got clobbered.

Being prepared doesn't help. Newhouse doesn't want to say that a good campaign run by good consultants can lose. If being prepared can't fend off a wave, then why do you people like Newhouse?

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