CA-31: DCCC Poll Out

I've covered the background of CA-31 before, so I won't go through all that again. With four Democrats in the field, there is clearly a concern that two Republicans could finish top two again. The DCCC has been polling the race and the pollster memo is on Roll Call. The poll isn't pretty for them. First, let's set aside that Democrats lead in the poll 47%-36%. In 2012, Republicans had 51.5% to Democrats 48.5%. We have no reason to expect 2014 to be more Democratic than 2012. If anything it'll be more Republican. But I'd expect a Democratic group to anticipate a Democratic friendly electorate. Second, let's set aside that Lesli Gooch, the Republican with the most cash on hand, has only 6% of the vote. We wouldn't expect Democrats to show how Republicans are doing accurately. Even if Gooch is behind now, her superior cash advantage is sure to get her a higher percentage than she has now.

The thing to look at, the think that surprises me, is that the DCCC guy, Pete Aguilar has an anemic 15%. And he's leading the Democratic pack. If no Democrat exceeds 15%, I think it's likely that two Republicans will finish top two. I think there's a 50-50 chance two Republicans will get 19% here. So that's the dividing line for me. If a Democrat gets 22-23%, he or she should make top two. The Super PAC supporting Joe Baca may end up early hurting Democrats and cause the same result as 2012.