Wednesday, October 31, 2012

California Absentee Analysis 10/31

There are now 2.8 million California VBM ballots in, around 20% of the total votes. Right now the ballot distribution is 43.3%D/36.8%R/19.9%I. That's a 6.4% Democratic advantage, 1.2% above the 5.2% last Wednesday. In the last week, the Democrats have had a 7.5% ballot advantage. None of these numbers should scare Republicans. The 2008 exit polls had Democrats with a 12% advantage. So Republicans would like to keep it below 8% and Democrats would like to get it above 11%. Right now it looks like Democrats will have to hope for a big advantage in election day turn-out. It's possible, but there's no way to know.

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