Wednesday, October 24, 2012

California Absentee Analysis 10/24

Ballots in California are counted by the counties and then submitted to the state. The counties don't submit to the state on a uniform basis, so one county might submit one day but not the next. Districts that are in more than one county could have a Republican county submit but the Democratic county does not. So the absentees will move more Republican that day. Keep that in mind when looking at day to day shifts. Overall, the Democratic absentee advantage declined from 5.6% to 5.2%. Considering that 5.6% was a bad number for Democrats, this is the wrong direction to move in.

Even though overall absentees moved to the Republicans, more swing districts moved Democratic. The most significant shift is in CA-3, which moved 4 points more Democratic since yesterday. CA=10, 16, and 47 moved one point more Republican, while CA-21, 24, 26, 36, and 52 moved one point more Democratic. Republicans are still projected ahead in 11 of 12 districts, but CA-24 and 52 are razor thin leads.

The only change is SD-27 moves 1 point toward the Republicans. Newcomer Todd Zink had to be considered a big underdog in this swing district, but there have been nearly 1,700 more Republican ballots submitted thus far.

Few moves here, although AD-9 is looking increasingly competitive.

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