Tuesday, October 30, 2012


Democrat Raul Ruiz is out with an internal poll that shows him winning by 6 points. This is difficult to believe for the following reasons:

1. Ruiz concedes Bono Mack is winning by 6 points with those who've already voted. That makes sense because Republican VBM returns are currently R+5. My estimate is that 25% of the electorate has voted.

2. So Ruiz has to be winning the rest of the voters by 10 points to be up 6. Considering that 33% of voters have no impression of him, I have to wonder where his votes are coming from.

3. In 2008 Obama won the old district by 5. Bono Mack won by 17, a 22 point difference.

4. Obama won the state by 24 in 2008, but four consecutive polls taken this month by reputable independent pollsters put the margin between 12 and 15 points.

5. If Mitt Romney is doing 10 points better statewide, he's averaging doing 10 points better in each congressional district. President Obama has lost the most with White voters, so he's probably lost more than 10 points in Whiter districts. They have Obama leading by 7. That means Obama would've gained 4 points here, 14 points away from what's actually happening. It's a statistical impossibility for Mitt Romney to cut the lead by 10 points and lose 4 points in a congressional district.

Barack Obama isn't up 7 points in this district. Even if he were, Mary Bono Mack is unlikely to get less of the vote than Romney. Did I mention that Democrats have never won a seat where the majority of the district was in Riverside County?

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