Thursday, October 25, 2012

California Absentee Analysis 10/25

Absentee counts jumped another 300k and we are over 10% of all the California votes for the first time. It was a good day for the Democrats saw the absentee spread go from 5.2% (42.7%D/37.5%R) to 5.8% (43.0%D/37.2%R). This is still nowhere near where the Democrats need it to be to have a good election. I've been unable to confirm that Republicans will be a lot closer with VBM than on election day, although I got a tip that VBM so far has skewed older than it should. Unless I can figure out another way to adjust the numbers I'll continue to report the results absentees only would produce.

f CA-16 remains as the lowest number of absentees turned in, but a big Democratic jump isn't unexpected. The other changes were relatively minor, but CA-24 and 36 moved 2 points to the right.

Democrats gained ground in the two swinish distress, SD-27 and 31.

Most of the assembly districts were unchanged.

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