Monday, October 15, 2012

CA-9 and 36: Democratic Polls Look Good For Them

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has put out two polls showing their party winning CA-9 and CA-36. Let's take a look.

Barack Obama won California by 24 in 2008. SurveyUSA polled the state in September and showed Barack Obama with a 22 point lead. They polled again after the debate. Barack Obama had a 14 point lead. While one poll shouldn't be considered definitive, Romney's gain is consistent with his gains throughout the country. If the President's lead has indeed dropped 10 points then California congressional districts will also drop by an average of 10 points. After all, the statewide vote is the sum of the 53 congressional districts' vote.

The President isn't expected to drop much with minorities so he'll likely drop by a lot more with white voters. Neither of these districts is majority minority, so it's pretty safe to assume that these districts will drop more than the majority minority districts to get to the result.

2008:Obama +15%
Expected 2012: Obama +5%
Democratic poll: Obama +11%

2008: Obama +3%
Expected 2012: Romney +7%
Democratic poll: Obama +5%

Obama winning CA-9 by 11% is possible, although it's probably high. It should be close here, especially since this is a majority White district.

If Barack Obama wins California by 14 points, he isn't winning CA-36, let alone by 5 points, even if Riverside County is trending Democratic. So let's adjust the polls based on how much the Presidential number is off.

Democratic poll: McNerney +9%
Adjusted poll: McNerney +3%

Democratic poll: Ruiz +3%
Adjusted poll: Bono Mack +9%

I'm not one to approve of polls just because the results look like what I think they should, but you tell me which looks right.

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