As I mentioned last week, CA-15 is a very intriguing match-up in the state's new top two format. This is a 59%-35% Brown-Whitman district, Democratic enough where it's Safe Democratic, but Republican enough that a Republican candidate would rack up a lot of votes. Yet there's no Republican. That makes sense in the 84%-11% Brown district next door, but it's a little odd here. Besides incumbent Democrat Pete Stark, Dublin city councilman Eric Swalwell, and independent Chris Pareja are in the race. If Pareja were a Republican he'd be guaranteed to advance. There are enough Republican votes for that. Pareja, who is underfunded, might not be going after Republicans. Even if he is, he might not be able to convince them he's the candidate for them. If Swalwell can sell himself as a better alternative to Republicans, he'll advance with Stark.
That'll make it interesting in the fall. Because it'd just be Swalwell and Stark, Swalwell wouldn't have to get more than a third of the Democratic vote if he can lock up Republicans. Well, Swalwell is going hard after Stark. There's no indication he's going after Republicans, but he should be able to sell himself as a better alternative for them. Republicans would be happy with him gone.
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