This is a district that takes up most of San Bernardino county north to Mammoth Mountain ski resort. There’s also the San Bernardino National Forest, Joshua Tree National Park, and Death Valley. The district is unusual because it has no big city, just smaller ones like Victorville and Yucaipa.
When Rep. Jerry Lewis retired CA-8 had no incumbent. Since this is a safe Republican district, Republican candidates have come out of the wood work to run here. You’ve got a state assemblyman, a county supervisor, mayors, a city councilwoman, and even a deep pocketed business man from outside the district. There’s only one Democrat, Jackie Conaway. Even though she’s raised only $10,819, she doesn’t have anything to worry about. The district is 32% registered Democrats. They’ll be voting for her. She’ll get 30-35% of the vote.
No one else will get half of that. The favorite is San Bernardino Supervisor Brad Mitzelfelt. He’s raised some money, is well known in the district, and has a Super Pac behind him, with the wonderful name Jobs, Opportunity, & Freedom. Who is against that?
Mitzelfelt’s two chief rivals figure to be State Assemblyman Paul Cook and Victorville Mayor Ryan McEachron. All three have raised a similar amount of money and have good name recognition. Each candidate can concentrate on his base, as none might not even get 15%.
Rich dude Phil Libatore showed up in the district at the last moment. No one should dismiss a deep pocketed candidate’s ability to get at least some votes, but Libatore hasn’t put in the amount he did in a 2010 run and he’s from pretty far outside the district. I don’t see him getting traction.
Former GOP Assemblyman Anthony Adams has sparked a lot of interest because he’s running under the No Party Preference banner. Yay! Yay! Was that insincere? The going thought is that because he’s NPP, he’ll get a lot of independent votes and add them to his Republican votes. After he voted for the 2009 tax increase, Republicans attempted to recall him. With 10 Republicans in the field, it’s tough to see Adams getting a lot of GOP votes.
Okay, but what about independent votes? The district is 26% independent/minor parties. There’s a misperception that independents are moderates who are just looking for a great independent moderate. They aren’t. Certainly some are and maybe a majority are. You’re a Republican or Democrat because you identify with the party or their candidates. That’s why, in this age of polarization, the parties get such a high percentage of votes from their members. They are inclined to vote for a member of their party, who they want to support, even if they like an independent better. Surely, not all of them, but most.
Independents, however, have no loyalty to a party and being independent isn’t one. They might be very conservative, libertarian, very liberal, or even socialist. Maybe they don’t like getting the party mail and phone calls. Maybe they don’t like identifying themselves with a party. Maybe they don’t want to feel obligated to vote for that party. There are many reasons why they’re independents.
That’s why I think Adams, who has no clear constituency, gets 5% of the vote. His only hope is to go hard after Democrats and hope he can appeal to them as a candidate who can win in November. I’m skeptical.
There are several other Republicans in the race, but I don’t think any of them are threats to pull more than 10%. I know Angela Valles put out a poll showing her above that, but she’s raised $175 from donations and the only cash on hand she has is her own.
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