Thursday, April 26, 2012

Another CA-2 Poll

We have another CA-2 poll, this time from Democrat Norman Solomon. The last one had 45% of the vote gong to Democrats, but only 10% going to Republicans. This one tops it. Before I get to that, I want to recap previous elections. CA-2 is mostly Thompson and Woolsey's districts combined. Here's how the old districts voted in 2010.

Pretty Democratic, but there were some Republican votes there. There were also a bunch of third party votes in each election, so we know people will vote for who they want regardless if the candidate has a chance to win. Some Whitman/Fiorina voters crossed over for Thompson, but that wasn't the case with Woolsey.

Here is the new district:

It became more Republican, so we'd expect a share of the votes to go to the Republican candidates. Here are the poll results, compared to the 2010 vote.

So either Republicans are disproportionally undecided, they're all voting Democratic, or they under polled Republicans because Solomon wanted to show supporters and donors he was doing well, but still needed support. I'm not saying for sure a Republican will finish 1 or 2, but with so many quality Democrats I think it'll happen.

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