CA-30 poll
Lauren Whittington @l_whittington
Diane Feldman poll for Brad Sherman in #CA30: Sherman 40% Berman 17%. Sherman camp says he's saving $ for Nov
Kyle Trygstad Kyle Trygstad @KyleTrygstad
New Brad Sherman internal poll: Sherman 40, Berman 17, Reed (R) 12. Sherman 52, Berman 25 head2head. #CA30
It defies credibility that in a district that the worst performance was Mimi Walters losing 58%-29% and Obama won 66%-31% that Democrats could be ahead 57%-12%. This poll either assumes that Republicans won't vote June 5, even though there is a Republican Presidential primary and no Democratic one, or they'll vote Brad Sherman. I know San Fernando Valley Republicans. I've been to meetings at Galpin Ford. I've walked precincts with them. They won't be casting their votes for Brad Sherman or Howard Berman, even if Reed isn't going to win. These are the sort of numbers Barbara Lee might get. They won't happen in CA-30.
It also shows a twenty percent undecided rate, so you could be correct. But remember there are three Republicans running and Shelley for one has some endorsements and is spending money. You also have to remember that Berman has prominent Republican endorsers (Mike Antonovich has said the letter to Reed was written by a staffer and he is supported by Rich Bond and Darrell Issa among others) and Sherman is also supported by prominent Republicans like Mitch Englander and former Councilman Greig Smith and he has said that at least one Republican legislator will endorse him before the primary. The big question is whether voters will cross party lines in the open primary. I suspect they will because both Democrats will spend a lot to reach out to them and they have in specials where the top two candidates were Democrats. Not always, but sometimes and there is no Craig Huey to pour his own money in on the Republican side of things.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, since you mention Galpin, remember that Boeckman is also supporting Berman.
ReplyDeleteThere was a rumor that Berman was courting people at Galpin, but I never saw anything indicating support. Berman lists a lot of people as endorsers on his website, but Boeckman isn't among them. He does list Mike Antonovich, Don Knabe, Richard Riordan, and Lee Baca. I'm not sure how much those endorsement mean unless these people campaign for him or are on a flyer.
ReplyDeleteThere'll be a flyer going out from the county party endorsing Reed. That'll be huge, because RPLAC is a name Republicans trust. The big problem, however, is that there are Republicans who'll slit their wrists before they'd vote for a Democrat. You can spend millions and never win their vote. I know I've voted for an unknown Republican over a well known Democrats many times.
I haven't seen the poll, so I don't know if the missing votes are undecided or for someone else. I question that Shelley has 10% in the above poll. Navraj Singh is unknown. Shelley doesn't have any prominent endorsements, although she is endorsed by someone I've worked on campaigns with before. She's a nice lady, but I don't see it.
Both Bert and Jane Boeckman are on Howard Berman's website as is Alan Skobin. Sherman recently added Jim Lacey a former lawyer in the Reagan White House and Orange County City Councilman and Shelley announced that she would put an unknown amount of money into the race (she evidently has a large inheritence) and has hired a consultant to help her efforts.
ReplyDeleteYou're right. Berman lists endorsements alphabetically by first name. Who does that? So I didn't see Bert under the B's and didn't think to look for Jane. Endorsements are nice, but the big question is whether any of these Republicans are going to campaign/be on mailers for Berman. That'd matter.
ReplyDeleteI don't doubt that Shelley isn't just a name on the ballot, but the question is whether she has enough to garner serous amounts of votes.
Well, Berman and Sherman are both expected to spend over 10 million dollars by November, so it is safe to say that both will be mailing many flyers to Republicans with their supporters in those groups listed.
ReplyDeleteThat'd seem likely, although endorsements is one thing and advocating is another. Campaigning for a Democrat could hurt them with Republicans.
ReplyDeleteOf course, the question is whether Republicans will vote for a Democrat.