How a Presidential candidate does may correlate with how a congressional race will go, but there are so many other factors that I don't think they're the best numbers. Barack Obama isn't running for congress.
Congressional numbers have the added advantage of the incumbent running again. CA-7 consists of 81% Republican districts. While that might give the Republicans the advantage of having stronger candidates in 2010, they will have the same incumbent in 2012. Of course the opponent may be better this year and open seats, e.g. CA-26 and CA-41 have an incumbent bump without an incumbent.
I used 35% as the Democratic share in the Nunes and McCarthy races. It's a little less than Brown got, but it's actually 3.4% higher than any of Nunes or McCarthy's opponents have ever gotten.
The numbers below are Whitman's two party percentage, McCain's two party percentage, the Republican congressional race share in 2010, how the congressional race compares to Whitman and how it compares to McCain. The numbers on the right indicate what percentage of the new district comes from a district a Republican won in 2010 and what percentage from a Democratic district.
I've included all districts where Whitman got between 43% and 57% as well as all that McCain 38% and 49%. This does exclude two districts Barack Obama won, CA-25 and CA-49, but both were well over 60% on a congressional race level. The Democrats have inferior challengers in both districts and no one expects them to be competitive in 2012.
CA-53: This district is barely on the list and Susan Davis is in no trouble. I included it, however, to show how Democratic CA-41 is. It has a very similar percentage.
CA-46: I was surprised to find Republicans ran so strong here, considering that 69% of the district was won by Democrats. Loretta Sanchez is a tough incumbent and the Republicans have weak challengers. This district should be considered safe, but it is worth watching on June 5.
CA-9: This is another district where I wasn't excited about the Democrats. Jerry McNerney is the weakest Democratic incumbent and would be out of a job if a third party didn't screw it up for the GOP in 2010. Democrats here got a safe share. Go Likely Democratic pending the primary.
CA-16: Republicans blew this one big time. This'd be a winnable district with a good candidate. The GOP doesn't have one. I'd go with Likely Democratic pending the primary.
CA-47: This is a shocker. More than half of this district was won by Democrats in 2010. Yet Republican candidates actually won this district. Alan Lowenthal figures to be a good candidate, but the Republicans have two good candidates. This one is in play. Lean Democratic.
CA-31: This district is trending away from Republicans but it went almost 50-50 in 2010. Gary Miller is an incumbent with a big war chest and Pete Aguilar is a small town mayor. I like him as a candidate, however, so it's Lean Democratic.
CA-3: Republicans didn't win this district and it's one of the worst ones vs. McCain. This still figures to be close. Lean Democratic.
CA-7: Whitman ran even with McCain, the only time she did that. This district has a lot of state government workers and Whitman ran on state government pension reforms. It's possible that cost her 3-4 points. Republicans weren't that strong here, but I still like Dan Lungren for Lean Republican. Yet I'll call it a toss-up, because the Republican percentage was only 50.8% in a district that was 81% Republican territory.
CA-21: Finally good news for Republicans. This district is mostly Jim Costa's old district. Yet Republican congressional candidates won it with 56.5% of the vote. Republicans have a good candidate and Democrats have a weak one. Democrats can't win with a weak candidate in the Central Valley. Likely Republican pending the primary.
CA-24: I'm not excited about Abel Maldonado, but the Republican bump over McCain is huge. I'll go with Lean Democratic for now.
CA-26: The national media has been certain that Elton Gallegly would've lost this race, but the district did far better than McCain and they like to look at McCain-Obama numbers. And this has a decent amount of Lois Capps territory. I like Tony Strickland here and question Julia Brownley's appeal here. Yet I'll leave it as a toss-up, especially since Linda Parks is going to get a good share of votes.
CA-10: Comparitvely Republicans didn't do a lot better than Whitman/McCain here, but it was a decent district for both that I think Jeff Denham is a good bet. I think it's Likely Republican, as Denham is a proven winner in tough races and Hernandez is... an astronaut. Many non-politicians have won seats in the past, but it's difficult to know which are good candidates and which aren't.
CA-36: Good luck beating Mary Bono Mack. She's overachieved in every election and that's reflected in the congressional number. Democrats should win one Riverside district and be happy with that. I think it's safe, but you could call it Likely Republican pending June 5.
CA-52: This is the only battleground district where Republican congressional candidates were below Meg Whitman. That could be a red flag, since both Duncan Hunter and Brian Bilbray, the two Republicans who represent parts of this district, won their races. Yet the congressional vote's spread over McCain is nearly as high as any district. Still, Republicans got 53.9% here and that's enough for a Lean Republican.
We have 28 Safe Democratic seats, 3 Likely Democratic, 4 Lean Democratic, 2 toss-ups, 2 Lean Republican, 2 Likely Republican, and 12 Safe Republican seats. Republican congressional candidates won 8 of these seats. Democrats won 4. The last one CA-31, was too close to call. Republicans only need to win 7 of the seats to break even.
I still put this at D+1 but wouldn't be surprised if Republicans gained seats.
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