Super Tuesday

Washington is going to get forgotten. Arizona and Michigan are the Tuesday before Washington and Super Tuesday is the Tuesday after.

Because Washington occurs before Super Tuesday, the straw poll results are non-binding.

A presidential straw poll will be taken at the precinct caucuses and the state party will release the results. Those results will be meaningless. The straw poll will have nothing to do with who ultimately wins Washington’s delegates, but the media will announce a “winner” on March 3, just as they erroneously announced Pat Robertson as the winner in Washington state in 1988.

This makes the caucuses even less relevant and not somewhere you want to focus your energies on.

Georgia has a congressional district system. If someone clears 50% in a congressional district, they get 3 delegates. If not, then the #1 vote getter gets 2 to the #2 vote getter's 1. Statewide will be proportional, although delegates will only go to those who finish with 20% or more of the vote.

Thus, GA-4, 5, and 13 are worth the same as GA-3, 9, and 14. I don't know Georgia electorally, but I'd guess there will be a difference how urban and rural Republicans vote.

Ohio has a similar system. There, there's a difference regionally. The Eastern part of the state is Santorum country. His protectionist pro-union positions fit perfectly here. He should win OH-6, 7, 11, 13, 14, and 16 fairly easily. The rest of the state should be up for grabs. Ohio has a good share of social conservatives in the rest of the state, which should help Santorum, but Republicans fiscally won't be union members.

Romney's best shot for delegates in Ohio and Georgia is to hope that the results are more South Carolina and Florida than Missouri and Minnesota. He needs to do very well in urban and suburban congressional districts, many of which will have few Republicans.

There'll be other March 6 primaries. Oklahoma represents very little opportunity for Romney and he'll likely leave the state to Santorum and Gingrich. Tennessee is proportional, as long as no candidate makes 50%. In Virginia, only Romney and Paul ar on the ballot. Massachusetts, Vermont, and Idaho figure to favor Romney.