Wednesday, February 29, 2012

CA-8: 8 Candidates

Former Republican state senator Anthony Adams is running as "no party preference," as Linda Parks indicated she might do in CA-26. Adams was one of the "Sacramento Six," Republicans who voted for the 2009 tax increase. This spurred a recall effort. While it failed, Adams is a pariah among Republicans. It's difficult to see him getting much Republican support.

CA-8 is a very Republican district, one that a Republican should win easily. There are, however, 6 Republicans and 1 Democrat currently in the field. Among the Republicans, there's a county supervisor, an assemblymen, a mayor, and two city council members.

San Bernardino County Supervisor Brad Mitzelfelt and State Assemblyman Paul Cook should be the best candidates. Neither got in until Jerry Lewis announced he wasn't running. So they didn't report fundraising by 12/31/11.

This could go the way of the CA-36 special and the cream will rise to the top as Craig Huey did. Or they could split the Republican vote, with no one getting more than 15%. It's conceivable that Jackie Conaway and Adams could split enough Democrats and independents to beat that and advance to November. Adams might not beat Conaway if it were a match-up between the two. It's possible that enough Republicans wouldn't want Adams to become the incumbent and would defect to Conaway, since she'd be easier to unseat in 2014.

This has been a concern of mine for months. It'd be nice to get candidates to drop out, but sometimes that doesn't work. The Republicans in the CA-36 were all for someone dropping out, just not themselves.

I don't see how Adams wins in November against a Republican. That candidate would just need enough money to get Adams' vote out there, although I imagine independent groups would fill in if the candidate couldn't.

The Jungle Primary should be interesting.

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