There are so many districts to talk about that I'm splitting this into two parts.
Voter registration numbers and Q4 fundraising numbers came out on the same day early this week. Yes! On the same day. That sounds like Christmas. To you too? Below are half of the key districts. The numbers in the first line are the change in registration since 2011:
1st District: R: -0.6% D: -0.6% (Safe Republican)
This is Wally Herger’s safe Republican district. Only one Republican, Peter Stiglich, has reported any fundraising to the FEC, and his total of $3,934 really puts him at the same starting point Doug Lamalfa and Greg Cheadle. Democrat Jim Reed actually leads the fundraising race, although he only had $7,706 C-O-H at the end of 2011. Since he’s the only Democrat in the race, he will advance likely win the primary, but he has no hope of winning the general election.
2nd District: R: -0.2% D: -0.3% (Safe Democratic)
There is a large field of Democrats, including favorites Norman Solomon and Jared Huffman. You already have three Democrats who’ve raised over $300,000, a good sum for a challenger. This should be a great race in June. Like Reed, Republican Dan Roberts will win the primary and he too will win the general election.
3rd District: R: -0.5% D: -0.5% (Leans Democratic)
You now have a field of five Republicans looking to take on Democrat John Garamendi. Kim Delbow Vann is the only one to show significant fundraising and has to be thought of as the favorite at this point. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Republican here will get help from the NRCC or outside groups. Garamendi can keep raising money until the general election and doesn’t have to spend anything to get there. There are a number of California Republicans who have Garamendi at the top of their list of Democrats to topple, so I’d guess there will be money in here.
7th District: R: -0.4% D: -0.2% (Leans Republican)
Democrat Ami Bera has nearly $1 million C-O-H, a sizeable sum for an incumbent, let alone a challenger. Lungren hasn’t raised as much, but he does have $521k C-O-H and he will get outside help. Lungren did survive 2006 and 2008, so he’s weathered the toughest Democratic years. The seat moved 2 points more Democratic. That could be enough to push Bera over the top and a lot of experts have the district as a toss-up.
I anticipate the Republican nominee, let’s call him Mitt, to win this district, so I can’t see calling a race against a battle tested Republican a toss-up.
9th District: R: -0.0% D: -0.7% (Leans Democratic)
This is the first district where there was a difference in the parties’ change in registration. The drop in Democrats, without a similar drop in Republicans, may make this race more competitive than people imagine. Like Bera in CA-7, the challenger, Republican Ricky Gill, has outraised the incumbent Jerry McNerney. McNerney hasn’t shown a lot of strength. But he’s an incumbent in a Barbara Boxer district.
10th District: R: +1.0% D: -1.2% (Likely Republican)
I doublechecked these numbers and apparently the district has gone from D+4.8 registration to D+2.6. That’s pretty dramatic. Jeff Denham is a fundraising powerhouse whose survived tough races in the legislature. Jose Hernandez is an astronaut… He actually has a good quarter for a newbie, but this is an uphill battle for him. Fiorina won the district handily and Whitman won it by a few points. If it really has moved to the right, Denham is bulletproof.
16th District: R: -0.6% D: -0.5% (Likely Democratic)
Jim Costa is probably safe, but this is the Central Valley and Costa won in a recount in 2010. It’s tough to see him losing to Brian Whelan. Whelan is pretty much some dude, but everyone else has passed on it.
21st District: R: -0.9% D: -0.8% (Leans Republican)
David Valadao would appear to be a strong favorite, because his current opponent, John Hernandez is some dude. Democrats are hoping for former state Sen. Dean Florez and are trying to get Fresno City Council Member Blong Xiong as their back-up candidate. Since the primary will likely be a walk for the Democrat, any candidate has time to raise money for November.
24th District: R: -0.5% D: -0.3% (Leans Democratic)
Abel Maldonado’s fundraising is good for a challenger, but he keeps pumping it with his own money right before the fundraising reporting deadline and then taking it back a few days later. This is a silly game and Lois Capps needs a serious challenger. Thomas Watson and Chris Mitchum have raised virtually nothing, but one could still beat Maldonado if the tea party gets behind them.
I’d like to move this race to Likely Democratic, but this is a 50-50 district and Maldonado could be a good candidate if he gets his act together.
26th District: R: -0.3% D: -0.3% (Toss-up)
Democrats are lining up five deep for this seat, although Steve Bennett may get the party endorsement. There’s a lot of jockeying going on with the Democrats, while Tony Strickland appears to have sown up a spot in November. There are no other Republicans in the field, and none will challenge him, and he raised $318,000 on his first day in the race.
Linda Parks may be making the suicidal decision to run as “no party preference.” That’ll cause most of whatever Republican support she has to dry up, as Republicans will vote for Republicans. There are too many Democrats for her to get significant votes from there and there probably aren’t enough centrist independent voters to finish in the top two. Of course if the Democratic vote is spread out wide enough, she could scrape in.
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