I can't say all of this is 100% accurate, but it's what I've been able to conclude for the February 28-March 6 primaries. This info comes from Green Papers and FHQ.
Michigan: There are only 2 at large delegates. Whoever wins the primary wins both. So while the media will jump on who "won," but that might not be who wins the most delegates. Because their delegates were halved, the Michigan GOP is awarding 2 delegates for each congressional district won. If the person who loses the primary wins 8 congressional districts to his opponents' 6, he wins delegates 16-14.
It's really not important to "win" Michigan. It's important to win districts.
Arizona: This is a straight winner-take-all. So it is really important who wins the primary. I'd guess that even if Romney or Santorum collapse they'll probably win 5 districts. so a big win in Michigan could be 20-10. In Arizona, it's 29-0.
Washington: This is a congressional district state. Whoever wins any of the 10 districts gets 3 delegates. The remaining 10 delegates are awarded proportionally. So expect Ron Paul to get 1 and the winner might get 4. The real battle, as with Michigan, is the congressional districts. Santorum should win WA-4 and WA-5 easily. The rest should be up for grabs.
Alaska: This is straight proportional. The 27 delegates are nothing to sneeze at, but both Romney and Santorum should do similarly, even if one wins by 10.
Georgia: Forty-two of the delegates are awarded based on congressional district, and 30 are based on statewide results. Georgia has a twist. If you get over 20%, you get delegates. If you get 20% or less, you get 0. So 20% of the statewide vote gets you 0 delegates, but 20.1% gets you 6. Romney doesn't anticipate winning here, but 20% or less would be a disaster.
It's similar for congressional districts. If one candidate gets 50% of the vote in a congressional district, he'll get all 3 delegates. If not, the leader gets 2 and the 2nd place finisher gets 1. While it's possible that Romney will win the minority-majority congressional districts, his goal here is to get 2nd in each district. Losing 48%-22% is the same as losing 37%-33%.
Idaho - While Idaho has 32 delegates, I believe only 26 are at stake on Super Tuesday. The rest will be decided at the convention. I think it's winner-take-all for the other 26.
Massachusetts - They award 3 delegates per congressional district proportionally. Romney is polling strong in Massachusetts and should get 2 in each district. The final 11 statewide delegates are dolled out proportionally, with a 15% threshold.
North Dakota - Another straight proportional. So it's mostly irrelevant.
Ohio - Major Super Tuesday prize and one that Santorum could walk away with a lot of delegates. These rules are like Georgia's in that the winner statewide gets all 15 delegates if he gets 50%. If he doesn't than anyone getting 20.1% gets a share of delegates.
There are also 48 delegates allocated by congressional district and Ohio has a mix of Santorum's two core voters, evangelicals in the western part of the state and blue collar union guys in the east. Districts like OH-8 would seem good for Romney, because the income levels are higher, but this area is more social conservative. Romney might be able to grab OH-1 and 3, but I don't see anything else.
Oklahoma - This is similar to Ohio, except the cut-off is 15%+ of the vote to be included in proportional. Santorum should walk away with 15 delegates from the CDs, but might not have a big haul. statewide.
Tennessee - Similar to Ohio, with 3 delegates per district and proportional above 20% for at-large.
Vermont - Here, Romney can take all the delegates if he gets a majority. If not, it's proportional. There are only 17 delegates at stake, but holding Romney under 50% is key for Santorum.
Virginia- Oops. There's no way to sugarcoat this. Romney will get all 13 at large delegates for getting a majority of the votes and then another 33 for winning the 11 districts. Gingrich would keep Romney down here, but I don't see how Paul wins any delegates.
Conclusions
There are some positives and negatives for each candidate. The big prizes appear to be Idaho, Virginia, and Arizona, simply because they are winner-take-all. Virginia favors Romney, because neither Gingrich nor Santorum are on the ballot, and the other two appear to be in his base.
Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Washington could all give Santorum a disproportionate share of the delegates, but he needs support for Gingrich to dry up for Georgia.
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