Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Santorum and Gingrich strategy

Santorum isn't trying to win enough delegates to get the nomination. Neither is Gingrich. People keep hoping that one will drop out and then the other will solidify the anti-Romney vote, but the problem is that they can't. Neither has the resources to compete in every state. If you look at their schedules you can see they're not trying.

In the 9 contests so far, Santorum and Gingrich have both finished top 3 in only 3 states.

Their best scenario for Romney's competitors is for Gingrich to win in the south, Santorum in the Midwest and Ron Paul to steal some delegates everywhere else. That way theydeny Romney a majority. So they're conceding Arizona. and Virginia. And Massachusetts. Santorum has to hope that Gingrich runs strong in Georgia, Tennessee, and Oklahoma, so he can concentrate on Ohio, Michigan, Washington, and North Dakota. North Dakota is non-binding, so I'd guess it's low priority for Romney.

I'm sure both Gingrich and Santorum would like to get the momentum to compete everywhere but I'm guessing you won't see the two of them going hard after the same state on February 28, March 3, or March 6. It's even possible that Santorum leaves Alabama and Mississippi to Gingrich on March 13 and goes hard after Hawaii, Missouri, and Illinois.

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