Monday, February 6, 2012

California Congressional Update (Part II)

29th District: R: -0.4% D: -1.1% (Safe Democratic)
You’d think that with how long they’d been waiting for a San Fernando Valley congressional district that Democrats would be tripping over each other to run here. L.A. city councilman Tony Cardenas has a clear field right now. It’s worth noting that with the Bob Filner and Howard Berman being replaced by Hispanic Democrats there might only be 3 White Democrats in the 29 Southern California districts from Los Angeles to San Diego.

30th District: R: +0.2% D: -0.5% (Safe Democratic)
While a Berman is no different than a Sherman to us Republicans any election aficionado will have to appreciate this race. Howard Berman has stepped up his fundraising and is almost at parity with Brad Sherman. Each has at least $2.8 million C-O-H and will likely raise a lot more.

When you’re about this kind of money who spends more is mostly irrelevant. In fact, I wonder what value it’ll have at all. Any Democrat who’ll be voting knows who both are and it’s not like one of them is going to present a position different from the other. I have no idea what they’ll be saying in advertising. I think it comes down to retail politics, who people like better. Sherman attends a lot of community events and may have the advantage here.

Mark Reed, the Republican who lost to Sherman in 2010, is back for another losing campaign. Susan Shelley is a name on the ballot, who might take Republican votes away from Reed, especially since Reed has yet to file an FEC report. I think he’s established enough that she won’t take many votes.

Reed will either win the June primary or finish second and that’ll leave Berman and Sherman to fight it out for a sure November win. That’s the best scenario for either of them. They’ll have to fight it out in June, for risk of finishing third, and no one wants to go through two races like this if they don’t have to.

If anyone thinks that Berman or Sherman will drain away Republican votes from Reed, I’ll ask them to spend an evening at Galpin Ford with the San Fernando Valley Republican club. It’d be interesting to see what would happen if Berman and Sherman both advanced. Redistricting Partners’ Paul Mitchell believes that many Republicans would leave the congressional race blank, rather than vote for either Democrat. So they could decide the race or sit it out.

31st District: R: -1.1% D: -0.1% (Lean Democratic)
The Republicans have a candidate with high name recognition and a huge bank account and he hasn’t put a dime of his own money in yet. Miller has had ethics issues and is seen by many as an underwhelming candidate.

Former state senate minority leader has some Republicans more enthusiastic and Miller will have a huge cash advantage but that won’t be as big a deal for Dutton as he’s representing much of this area now, while Miller hasn’t done so. People in Rancho Cucamonga don’t need to learn about Bob Dutton.

The Democrats had two underwhelming candidates until Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar jumped into the race. A Hispanic mayor should be a good candidate but Redlands is a city of 69,000 people. So he’s only represented a small part of the district, while Dutton has represented a lot more.

Even though I favor the Republican candidates here, the district leans Democratic and the loss in Republican registration should be alarming.

36th District: R: -0.7% D: -0.0% (Likely Republican)
The Democrats have cut the Republican registration advantage in the district and I still think they have little chance. Bono Mack has won comfortably in each of her elections, even in the heavily Democratic years of 2006 and 2008, when Barack Obama won the district. Palm Springs mayor Steve Pougnet came closest, he lost by 9 points, but he’s passed on the race. Bono Mack’s opponent is an emergency room physician. I can’t see Democrats winning a district where Bono Mack is running against some guy and the district is more Republican than the old one.

41st District: R: -0.4% D: -0.0% (Leans Democratic)
This is a majority Hispanic district, one that Barbara Boxer won comfortably. It should go Democratic. Yet there are problems with that. This is Riverside County and Democrats don’t win elections in Riverside County. It’s one thing for a Democrat to get more votes in a statewide race, it’s another for Riverside County Democrats to get the votes for local candidates. The Republicans are running county supervisor John Tavaglione, who has won there even with the Democratic lean.

The Democrats, on the other hand, aren’t running a Hispanic. They’re running a gay Asian whose big election victory is winning a seat on a community college board. I’m not demeaning him for being gay, but this isn’t West LA. Riverside isn’t nearly as progressive. Hispanics tend to be less tolerant of homosexuality than other groups. This isn’t the San Gabriel Valley and there are very few Asians in the district. The candidates have similar fundraising numbers, so there’s no advantage there In most other Riverside County elections Tavagilione would be a heavy favorite but the districts registration advantage favors the Democratic party.

47th District: R: -0.4% D: -0.2% (Leans Democratic)
This district is Democratic enough that it should elect a Democrat and state senator Allen Lowenthal should be a good candidate. Yet he’s not an incumbent and this district does contain Republican areas of Orange County. The Republican nominee should be strong with Long Beach city councilman Gary DeLong, former congressman Steve Kuykendall, and self-funder Troy Edgar.

51st District: R: -0.6% D: -0.6% (Safe Democratic)
This is another district where a Hispanic Democrat should replace a White one. Former state senator Denise Moreno Ducheny and current state senator Juan Vargas are the only two announced candidates. I’d expect a Republican to get in, which would make June the real election.

52st District: R: -0.5% D: -0.2% (Leans Republican)
This district has a Republican incumbent, Brian Bilbray, and it still has a 3 point Republican registration advantage. Whitman and Fiorina won comfortably and the weakest statewide candidate, Mimi Walters, nearly won. The Democrats have a good candidate in Scott Peters, who is Chair of the Port of San Diego. I think it’s more Likely Republican than lean, but without polling I’ll stick with lean for now.

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