When a 20 Seat Gain isn’t a 20 Seat Gain

A number of people have said that with Republicans controlling so much redistricting, they’ll gain 20 more seats. Others, such as myself, have said that the GOP won’t gain any seats. Both statements are right. Republicans will likely not have a net gain due to redistricting, but they will have a net of about a 20 seat gain from how they would’ve done if the redistricting were done by a bi-partisan or non-partisan committee. The chart below has states where Republicans control redistricting in red and Democrats in blue.



If the GOP weren’t drawing the lines in the 16 states below, they’d likely lose about 20 seats. Since they are, however, they’ll likely break even. The chart doesn’t include states like New Jersey, California, Colorado, or California that have bi-partisan or non-partisan commissions. These may net the Democrats a couple of seats, resulting in no net gain for either party.

If both parties had a fairly equal number of the current toss-up seats the House split would be around 227-208 Republican. If Republicans can move some toss-up seats into a firmer Republican lean that expectation may rise above 240. The GOP caucus wouldn’t expect to lose any seats.