The only thing we know for sure is that when California congressional districts are determined there'll be a lot of uncertainty. Until we see them, we can't know who's helped and who isn't, and even then a district which becomes more Democratic might not be a loss for a seasoned Republican.
Who won't be hurt?
Los Angeles and Bay Area Democrats - There'll be a Westside district in LA that Henry Waxman will run in. It's likely to be a little less Democratic, but there aren't enough Republicans in the area to seriously threaten Waxman. The San Francisco Bay Area is so Democratic that any rep whose district is now anywhere in Marin, Contra Costa, Alameda, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties shouldn't have anything to worry about.
Rural Republicans - Kevin McCarthy, Jeff Denham, and Devin Nunes have enough Republicans in the area in and around their districts that they won't have to worry. Many of the rural Democratic leaning Hispanics will be reserved for minority majority districts. There should be safe districts for Wally Herger and Tom McClintock, but Dan Lungren's district might go either way.
Who will be hurt?
Southern California Republicans - There are bound to be a few fairly Republican districts in Orange, San Diego, San Bernardino, and Riverside counties, but not as many as there are now. Many of these districts are gerrymandered in a way that there are Democrats on all sides of their districts. So these districts will become more Democratic. A few will become more competitive.
There may be two neighboring districts that are fairly Republican now, but become a Republican district and a toss up district. If the two Republican congressmen have part of their old districts in each, will they both go for the safe Republican district and run against each other? What if a district contains a lot of the congressman's old district, but not where he lives? Will he move 15 miles to get a good district?
Will someone be asked to fall on his sword? Buck McKeon, David Dreier, Darrell Issa, and Dana Rohrbacher are committee chairmen. Would Republican leadership pressure Brian Bilbray and John Campbell to let Issa run in the most Republican district in the area, while they'd get swing districts? The worst case scenario is two Republicans running against each other in a safe district, leaving a neighboring swing district in the hands of an inexperienced, underfunded candidate.
Border Democrats - Loretta Sanchez, Joe Baca, Jim Costa, and Bob Filner are among Democrats who live in Democratic districts that are in Republican territory. If the districts are drawn just a little differently they could be staring down a lot of Republican constituents.
Most congressmen will be able to run in districts only a little more Democratic or a little more Republican than they have now. They may get tougher, but shouldn't be out of reach. A few, however, will be in big trouble. Lucille Roybal-Allard could add a bunch of Republicans and still win handily. David Dreier won't be able to do the same with his district. It can go from fairly safe to leaning Democratic.
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