Friday, January 7, 2011

2012: Georgia

Senate: None
Legislature: Republicans +8 (+8%)
State Senate: Republicans +2 (+6%)
House: Democrats 5 Republicans 8
Redistricting: Republicans

Republicans fell just shy of beating Sanford Bishop this year. While John Barrow won by 14 points, the 12th is a toss up district. The GOP should be able to remove enough Democrats from each district to make them both attainable. Georgia gets another district in 2012 and that one will likely be in the heavily Republican Georgia suburbs. The GOP will pick up at least one congressional seat in 2012 and might pick up two or three.

The saving grace for Democrats is the state’s huge African-American population. Huge turnout in 2008 resulted in Republicans only winning Georgia by 5 points. If Georgia were in play in 2012 that means that states like North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida are going to the Democrats and the Presidential race will be a Democratic blow-out.

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