Senate: Bob Menendez (D)
Legislature: No election
State Senate: No election
House: Democrats 7 Republicans 6
Redistricting: Bi-partisan
New Jersey is thought of as a blue state, but this state is far closer to Pennsylvania and Ohio than it is to New York or Connecticut. Chris Christie is a popular successful governor and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that this state could be in play. Republicans were unfortunate with the 2002 redistricting and that’s unlikely to be repeated this year.
Bob Menendez is an underwhelming senator, vulnerable to a strong Republican challenge. With a congressional district being eliminated look for someone like Rep. Leonard Lance to run for senate.
If the bi-partisan commission creates more compact districts, expect a district to be eliminated in the central part of the state. The 4th, 6th, 7th, and 12th will likely be impacted. Two of these are Republican districts, two Democratic. There’s no obvious congressman that’ll lose his seat.
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