Republicans will control redistricting in three states losing a seat, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan, as well as Indiana, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina. Democrats control redistricting in Illinois. The smartest move, when a state loses a seat, is to pit two congressmen from the other party against each other in a seat that may be safer than the current one. There's likely no downside here. They lose one and you lose none.
Whose district do you try to crack by spreading out their voters? The conventional wisdom is you go after the most powerful member or someone who is perceived to be on their party's extreme. Democrats may want to target Peter Roskam in Illinois, a rising star in party leadership. Republicans might go after Tim Holden in Pennsylvania, Dennis Kucinich in Ohio, and John Dingell or Sander Levin in Michigan. In 2002 Republicans went after Holden, pitting him against Republican George Gekas in a district that was designed for Gekas. Holden won. In Michigan they attempted to redistrict John Dingell into retirement twice and failed.
These guys know how to win elections. If you want a good chance of picking up a seat you're better to redistrict out a weak congressman, rather than a strong one. I'm sure some people will find this counterintuitive. You can beat the freshman who barely won without heavily altering his district, but you might fail with the more senior congressman. Yes, if you go after the more senior congressman you might be able to pick up both seats, but you also might lose both too.
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