2012 Swing States

In 2000 and 2004 47 states were won by the same party both times. In 2008 Barack Obama managed to flip 9 states Bush won in 2004. Was this predictable? The best way to look at how a state is skewing is to adjust for the environment and quality of the candidate. The way to do this is to compare the candidate’s share of vote. Al Gore got about 2% more of the vote than John Kerry did. When we compare the 9 states we see that in 7 of them John Kerry did better compared to his overall share than Al Gore did. This, despite Kerry losing Iowa and New Mexico, states Gore won. There were a few other states where Kerry improved on Gore, but both lost them by enough that Obama couldn’t have been expected to win the states.

So which states will flip in 2012? To determine that I included both 2008 Presidential and 2010 congressional. These numbers are the difference between Fuji apples and Red Delicious. Congressional numbers aren’t as indicative because strong winners can go against the tide and weak challengers can drag the numbers. Knowing this, I excluded any state with 3 representatives or less. Due to incumbency, the Democrats did dramatically better in South Dakota, North Dakota, and West Virginia than the average Democrat did in 2010. In North Dakota, Earl Pomeroy was a stronger candidate than Barack Obama will be there in 2012.

First, let’s look at the states where the Democrats did better compared to the average Democrat than Obama did in 2008. Democrats did 7.2% worse in 2010. Since that was also their drop in Colorado, we can see that the Democrats didn’t actually do worse in 2010 than 2008. If Obama is a strong candidate in 2012, he should be able to win the state.


There are some surprising states on here. Democrats got swamped in Mississippi, Arkansas, South Carolina, and Louisiana, but their performance in these states was better than Obama’s in 2008. While none of those seem likely to flip, Arizona and Georgia are states to watch. John McCain’s presence on the ballot likely obscured Arizona’s Democratic trend. Democratic congressmen actually got a smaller share of the vote than Obama did, but they did better in a Republican year than Obama did in a Democratic year. Georgia is getting better for Democrats. African-Americans made up 30% of the vote in 2008 and may be even larger in 2012. This could be a big upset state.


There were some other states, however, that could be prickly for the President. Missouri barely went McCain and remains an opportunity. Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Virginia didn’t drift either way. Each was a swing state before and should be again.

There was a group of seven states, however, that could prove difficult for the President. New Jersey isn’t considered a swing state, but it keeps on getting more Republican. If Georgia is in play, New Jersey may also be.

Ohio, Indiana, Florida, and Iowa are all states Bush won. Obama took Ohio and Florida even though he did worse compared to his average than Kerry did. They were worse this year and may prove difficult for Obama in 2012. Indiana was regarded as a fluke in 2008. This was the state Obama improved the most. As any statistician will tell you, an outlier is the most likely to drop off.

Wisconsin and Michigan were very strong for Obama. Yet Democrats had their weakest effort of the decade in these states this year. Does he have something special in these states that we wouldn’t see in the numbers?

If Obama wins by 7 points again, he’ll cruise to victory. If it’s close, however, and Obama loses these seven states, he’d lose even if he flips Missouri or Arizona. If the Republicans also capture New Hampshire, they could win even if Obama manages to flip Georgia.