Thursday, July 18, 2013

California House Fundraising Update Part I

The Q2 2013 House of Representatives candidate fundraising numbers are all out. Let me start by saying that while they make a big deal of these inside the Beltway I mostly just "ho-hum" at them. People are limited in what they can contribute. An individual is limited to $2,600 in donations to any candidate. So the candidate can get that amount at any time. If you get it now, you can't get more later. If you don't get it now, you can get it later. Last year Tony Strickland got into the CA-26 race in January and raised $318,000 in the first day. His opponent, Julia Brownley, didn't get in until later and she won. The fundraising numbers can still tell us a little bit about who the seriously candidates are.

CA-3 - Democratic congressman John Garamendi has raised $329k this year and his Republican challenger Dan Logue has raised $102k. That's a bad number for Garamendi and a good one for Logue. Wait. What? Garamendi is an incumbent and his number covers six months. That's a low number for an incumbent in a competitive district. Garamendi only has $124k cash on hand and carries $22k in debt. Logue announced his bid for congress on June 19. So while he was gearing up for a congressional bid for a while, he didn't start picking up campaign contributions until the last 10 days of the six month period. Topping $100k in ten days is pretty darn good. I don't have Logue's cash on hand, but it's probably close to Garamendi's cash on hand less debt.

CA-7 - First term Democratic congressman Ami Bera has raised $576k this year. He's been a fundraising powerhouse. Republican challenger Elizabeth Emken has raised $302k, but $250k of that is from Emken's personal funds. So her fundraising total is insignificant compared to Bera. Emken may have put so much money in her campaign account to discourage rivals Doug Ose and Igor Birman from getting into the race. There's likely to be a lot of Republican money spent in the primary before challenging Bera.

CA-10 - Democrat Michael Eggman will need to raise more than $118k to take on Republican congressman Jeff Denham. Denham, like Bera, is a prolific fundraiser and has raised $797k this year. Denham has $835k cash on hand, more than seven times what Eggman has.

CA-15 - If Ellen Corbett is going to challenge 1st term Democratic congressman Eric Swalwell, she'll need to raise more than $28k. So far, there's once again no Republican in the race. So Corbett likely will finish top two and make it to November regardless of the amount she's raised.

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